Spatiotemporal Analysis of Thermal Environment and Land Use Change in Sonipat, Panipat, and Jhajjar Districts Under the Central Circle Forest Area of Haryana, India (1993–2023)

Changes in land use patterns due to urbanisation impact local weather patterns by influencing Land Surface Temperatures (LSTs). Despite rapid urbanisation in the Delhi-NCR (National Capital Region), the peri-urban fringes of Haryana, such as the Central Circle Forest (CCF) region, in the past three decades, a comprehensive 30-year analysis that integrates LST, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalised Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) is lacking. The current study on the decadal analysis covering the 1993 to 2023 time period shows an increase in built-up areas (14.6–38.4%), a decline in NDVI (−0.01 to −0.08), a 6 °C rise in summer LST, and weak correlations between LST and NDVI. A significant increase in summer mean LSTs was observed, with some regions reaching temperatures beyond 35 °C in the selected districts. The LST and LULC zonal statistics revealed that the open fields/agricultural land and floodplains of the Yamuna River have adversely affected the weather pattern with rising LST. The average NDVI declined from −0.01 in 1993 to −0.08 in 2023, indicating a loss of vegetative buffers. Meanwhile, NDBI trends from 2003 to 2023 showed that built-up areas have steadily grown, and LULC data highlighted 38.43% of the built-up area in 2023. Correlation analysis showed a weak negative relationship between LST and NDVI (r = −0.47), suggesting diminishing cooling effects of vegetation, while a weak positive correlation between LST and NDBI indicates that urban expansion is significantly contributing to the urban heat island effect. This study emphasises the need for green infrastructure, afforestation, and water conservation in urban planning frameworks to enhance climate resilience and ecological sustainability.