De-Risking the Transition: Quantifying the Security and Economic Value of Dynamic Dispatch and Integrated BESS–Interconnection Strategies for Egypt’s High-Renewable Grid

Achieving Egypt’s 2035 renewable electricity targets presents substantial operational and institutional challenges, compounded by limited electricity trade across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This study applies a PLEXOS-based simulation framework that integrates short-term economic dispatch with the Projected Assessment of System Adequacy (PASA) to evaluate the system-level impacts of economically dispatched cross-border interconnections with Saudi Arabia, Libya, Jordan, and Sudan. The analysis also incorporates domestic flexibility measures, including five-minute dispatch, dynamic reserve requirements, and battery energy storage systems (BESS). Scenarios with renewable energy penetration levels of up to 50% are assessed using Egypt’s 2023 power system as the baseline. The results demonstrate that transitioning from a static, hourly, standalone operating framework to an integrated flexibility configuration—combining five-minute dispatch, 8 GW of economically dispatched cross-border interconnection capacity, and 8 GWh of BESS—yields substantial system-wide benefits at 50% renewable penetration. Loss-of-Load Probability declines from 96.48% to zero, ensuring full system adequacy, while total operational costs decrease by more than 45%, corresponding to annual savings of approximately USD 1.04 billion. Renewable energy curtailment is reduced by over 98%, enabling nearly 15 TWh of additional clean electricity generation, and CO2 emissions fall by 11.6 million tons (≈40%). In addition, the operating-reserve shadow price—an indicator of reserve scarcity—declines to near zero, underscoring the effectiveness of coordinated regional dispatch and domestic flexibility in mitigating scarcity conditions. These findings provide robust evidence that integrated operational, temporal, and spatial flexibility can significantly accelerate renewable energy integration while strengthening system adequacy. The proposed framework offers an actionable and scalable blueprint for policy coordination and market reform in Egypt, with broader relevance for emerging power systems across the MENA region.