Monitoring Changes in Urban–Agricultural–Ecological Space Competition and Assessing Its Impact on Ecosystem Service Value in China’s Key Agricultural Regions

Human activity-driven territorial spatial competition profoundly affects ecosystem service value (ESV). However, the spatiotemporal patterns of “urban–agricultural–ecological space” (UAES) competition in China’s key agricultural regions and their quantitative effects on ESV have not been systematically investigated. Therefore, this study first constructed a “UAES competition–ESV response” analytical framework and selected Henan Province, a representative key agricultural region in China, as the study area. Subsequently, utilizing land-use remote sensing monitoring data from five periods (1980 to 2020), this study systematically analyzed the spatiotemporal competition characteristics of UAES in Henan Province and its impact on ESV using GIS spatial analysis method, the Geo-informatic Tupu method, and improved ESV evaluation model. The results indicate that from 1980 to 2020, Henan Province experienced a gradual shrinkage of agricultural space, rapid urban expansion, and a slight decline in ecological space. Urban encroachment on agricultural land is the primary spatial competition manifestation, which is most pronounced in the core area of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration. This urban expansion and subsequent agricultural encroachment on ecological land are key ESV loss drivers, causing losses of USD 812.41 million and USD 1663.24 million, respectively. The indirect ESV loss from cropland displacement substantially exceeded direct losses from urban expansion. This study provides critical insights into the trade-offs between urban expansion, agricultural development, and ecological protection in agricultural regions undergoing urbanization. The findings inform spatial planning and ecological conservation strategies in Henan Province and other similar agricultural regions.