Evaluating the Impact of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Ecosystem Service Values in a Coastal Wetland

Coastal wetlands are among the most ecologically valuable yet vulnerable ecosystems, particularly in regions experiencing rapid urban expansion. This study provides a four-decade assessment of land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics and their implications for ecosystem service value (ESV) in the Beidagang Wetland Nature Reserve (BWNR), located adjacent to the fast-developing Tianjin region in China. Using an integrated geospatial framework, combining multi-temporal remote sensing, supervised classification, and a modified benefit-transfer valuation approach, we analyzed LULC transitions and the associated variations in ecosystem service values (ESVs) across three critical phases: (i) a period of minimal anthropogenic pressure and climate influence (1984–1999); (ii) a phase of increased human activities (2000–2013); and (iii) an active ecological restoration period (2014–2023). Findings across the three phases show that the LULC changes are not in equilibrium, as indicated by the decrease in vegetation (−46.43%) and bare ground (−31.34%), while the water areas (+547.50%) and built-up areas (+14.40%) increased remarkably. This indicates an intensive human-induced environmental transformation; although some ecosystem service functions degraded, the total ecosystem service value (ESV) of BWNR continued to increase due to water area expansion. The variations in ecosystem service value (ESV) in response to LULC changes resulting from anthropogenic activities and climate change were estimated, and the results show that the total ESV of BWNR was approximately CNY 10,631.1 million in 1984, CNY 15,078.7 million in 2000, CNY 17,768.3 million in 2013, and CNY 19,365.4 million in 2023. Findings from this study will contribute to the theoretical understanding of coastal wetland vulnerability and provide empirical evidence for the coordinated management of wetland ecological conservation and economic development in the context of rapid urbanization in Tianjin’s coastal areas.