War as A Determinant of Population Health: A Systems Approach to Understand Pathways

Wars have multiple complex effects on population health. Countries suffer extensively from disruptions to their societies, economies, and environment. Understanding the pathways of disruption helps to adapt and mitigate the catastrophic effects of war. We used a previously published 12-dimensional framework on the health impacts of war to derive pathways of influence under three phases. The first phase, before overt aggression, includes economic sanctions, trade wars, and embargoes, often combined with covert military action and disrupted supply chains, infrastructure, and health services. The second phase of overt aggression has multiple direct and indirect effects on health: (<i>a</i>) morbidity and mortality; (<i>b</i>) population displacements with psychosocial implications; (<i>c</i>) opportunity costs from military expenditures often reversing economic growth and widening inequalities; (<i>d</i>) environmental degradation; (<i>e</i>) air and soil pollution from explosives; (<i>f</i>) destroyed infrastructure include housing, basic amenities, and health infrastructure; (<i>g</i>) destroyed arable land, deforestation, and loss of biodiversity; (<i>h</i>) and contamination of water sources. The third phase occurs during peace negotiations and when peace appears and consists of long-term effects. The latter includes transgenerational impacts on human well-being. Considering the wide health, social, and environmental implications of wars lasting for generations, we reiterate the call for an "end to all wars."