A Philosophy for Futures and Foresight

For as long as most of us can remember, futures and foresight science, as well as practice, has openly voiced a shared struggle over a lack of foundational theory (filed under “dismal theory”), the disorganization of our applied methods (filed under “methodological chaos”), and major challenges in establishing baseline ethical principles (which “responsible futures” is responding to). The net result, some have argued, is a disjointed field that suffers from a lack of truly cumulative science and a wide variety of incommensurable and, for the most part, untested practices. In response, scholars have imported diverse theories into the field, created an array of typologies to classify our applied methods, and proposed numerous principles to guide responsible practice. While this ongoing scholarly conversation has been informative, it seems that it has not ameliorated the problem to which it purports to respond to – perhaps even the opposite. It is the underlying philosophy of the field that is underdeveloped. What is needed, ergo, is not more theory, more methods, or more ethics. What is needed is a coherent philosophy of science and practice, replete with ethical principles, to guide the field. We, therefore, propose the adoption of a philosophy of science that is centered on the creation of new knowledge based on conjecture and refutation, which, we contend, ethically directs both our scholarly inquiry and our practical methods. We argue that this philosophy not only clarifies the process and purpose of diverse futures work and research, but also informs the structuring of academic and practical action, forms a foundation for social conduct, and, without hyperbole, sets lofty aspirations for our fields’ future role in the world.