Моделювання ризиків мультимодальних перевезень в Україні

The article examines the organization and development prospects of multimodal transportation in Ukraine amid growing international trade, deeper integration into global supply chains, and the challenges posed by the ongoing war. The study emphasizes that multimodal transport – combining road, rail, sea, and air modes – plays a crucial role in ensuring flexible and efficient cargo delivery while reducing overall logistics costs. Despite its significant potential, multimodal transportation in Ukraine faces substantial constraints, including underdeveloped infrastructure, a shortage of integrated intermodal terminals, incompatibility between transport systems, and an imperfect regulatory and legal framework. Additional difficulties arise from complex border procedures, insufficient digitalization of logistics processes, and the limited use of unified IT systems for real-time cargo monitoring. The paper provides an overview of leading logistics companies – such as DB Schenker, Maersk, DSV, DHL, Nova Global, Kuehne+Nagel, and Meest Express – that currently operate in Ukraine using multimodal solutions. Particular attention is given to the impact of the war on logistics flows, including the closure of Ukrainian airspace, the blockade of seaports, and the reorientation of transportation routes through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Moldova. The study presents examples of multimodal routes and highlights the importance of adapting logistics strategies to emerging risks, such as infrastructure damage and security threats. A mathematical model is proposed to optimize transportation processes under uncertainty, accounting for unpredictable events such as route blockages, adverse weather conditions, and military risks. The model is formulated as a stochastic optimization problem that minimizes expected costs or delivery time while incorporating the probabilities of risk occurrence. Simulation results demonstrate how delivery times vary depending on distance and the influence of additional risk factors. The findings confirm that multimodal transport remains a strategic tool for ensuring Ukraine’s effective participation in global trade flows. Overcoming infrastructural and regulatory barriers, strengthening international cooperation, and implementing advanced digital solutions will significantly enhance the efficiency and resilience of multimodal transportation, contributing to sustainable economic recovery and the country’s integration into the global logistics network