Is the French population on a path to decline?

The population of France grew by 0.25% in 2024. Nine-tenths of this increase is attributable to net migration and one-tenth to natural increase, which has fallen in response to a decline in births and an increase in deaths. Assuming that fertility and net migration remain stable at 2024 levels and that life expectancy continues to increase slowly, the 2024 projection shows that natural increase will become negative in 2027 but that the population will continue to grow for 2 decades.

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Journal
Archined
Published
2025-03-01
Primary Topic
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
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article
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article

Is the French population on a path to decline?

Gilles Pison, Laurent Toulemon
Archined
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
article

Is the French population on a path to decline?

Gilles Pison, Laurent Toulemon
article en

Abstract

The population of France grew by 0.25% in 2024. Nine-tenths of this increase is attributable to net migration and one-tenth to natural increase, which has fallen in response to a decline in births and an increase in deaths. Assuming that fertility and net migration remain stable at 2024 levels and that life expectancy continues to increase slowly, the 2024 projection shows that natural increase will become negative in 2027 but that the population will continue to grow for 2 decades.

Archined
Openalex Percentile: Top 13%
Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management
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Is the French population on a path to decline? — Gilles Pison, Laurent Toulemon · Archined (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS