Comparative civilizational turn : how research on civilizational security and social cohesion tacitly fuels the return of "civilizations" to geopolitical forecasting

The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine went unpredicted by many superforecasters. A major reason for this failure is the overlooking of civilizational identities—international collective identities combining cultural scripts, political culture, religions and institutional traditions—that shape global state systems. Without acknowledging these identities, analyses often rely on a simplistic "Kantian" rationality, ignoring cultural influences on state behavior. At the International Society for the Comparative Study of Civilizations (ISCSC), we argue that states seek not only geopolitical but also civilizational security, rooted in relational civilizational networks. Comparative civilizational analysis is thus crucial for accurate geopolitical forecasting. Since its founding in 1961 by Arnold Toynbee and Pitirim Sorokin, influential ISCSC members such as Samuel Huntington and Immanuel Wallerstein have echoed this view in their theoretical works. As of 2025, comparative civilizational research is thriving, albeit tacitly, across diverse fields—sociology, anthropology, political science, game theory, and Al modeling. Comparative researchers explore cultural zones, social imaginaries, and the evolution of historical polities. Integrating these insights under the common umbrella of "comparative civilizations” could foster pluralistic frameworks to understand civilizations as multilayered, dynamic networks, essential for policymaking and advancing academic theory. Such integration offers promise for a new comparative civilizational turn.