The Effect of Climate Anomalies on Oil Palm Productivity: A Quantitative Analysis

Oil palm productivity is strongly influenced by climate anomalies, particularly rainfall and temperature fluctuations linked to El Niño events. This study quantitatively assessed their impacts using climate data (2014–2023) and productivity data (2016–2023) from 124.49 ha of oil palm plantations (10–17 years old) in South Kalimantan, Indonesia. Time- lagged regression models (0, 1, and 2 years) revealed that a 1°C increase in temperature one year prior reduced the yield by 3.741 bunches per tree and 7.08 tons per hectare. Rainfall in the same period increased average bunch weight by 0.156 kg per 100 mm, though it did not affect yield or bunch number. Two years before harvest, rainfall exerted a stronger positive influence: every 100 mm increase raised bunch number by 0.133, average bunch weight by 0.079 kg, and yield by 0.422 ton per ha, while a 1°C temperature rise reduced 1.29 bunches per tree, 0.26 kg in bunch weight, and 3.24 ton per ha. In contrast, current-year rainfall had a negative effect, lowering yield by 0.307 tons per hectare for every 100 mm. These findings highlight that oil palm productivity is most sensitive to climate anomalies one to two years prior to harvest, emphasising the importance of long-term climate management strategies for sustainable production.