Wind farm wake losses under future build-out scenarios

Offshore wind is undergoing rapid expansion in many locations around the world, including the North Sea which is central to UK and EU renewable energy strategies. Turbine wakes, both within and between farms, impact negatively on wind power, particularly offshore. This study investigates the evolving impact of wakes on wind power output in the North Sea, based on a build-out trajectory to 2050. The results indicate that intra-farm wake effects will decrease in future, while inter-farm interactions over up to 125 km will increase, resulting in a small net increase in losses. While over 95% of wake-induced losses in the current North Sea fleet occur due to intra-farm wakes, this reduces to around 70% by 2050, highlighting the growing complexity of regional-scale wind farm planning and design. Our results also indicate a wind ‘theft’ effect, where a given farm produces gradually less power over its lifetime due to continued installation of neighbouring farms. For our case study, inter-farm losses experienced by existing farms increase 6.0% by 2050. Finally, we develop a scenario-specific regression model relating wake losses to installed capacity density, providing a practical wake correction model for use within power systems models, which typically neglect wake effects. • Wake-induced losses are simulated and analysed for North Sea build-out to 2050. • Intra-farm losses decrease in future due to larger turbines with greater separation. • Inter-farm losses increase due to greater regional-scale build-out density. • Currently installed turbines produce 6% less power by 2050 due to wind ‘theft’. • A simple model is constructed relating wake losses to installed capacity density.