Cohorts of immature <i>Pteropus</i> bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology

Understanding the drivers of seasonal disease outbreaks remains a fundamental challenge in disease ecology. Periodic outbreaks can be driven by several seasonally varying factors, including pulses of susceptible individuals through births, changes in host behaviour and social aggregation and variation in host immunity. However, when these potential drivers overlap temporally, isolating their relative contributions to outbreak patterns becomes challenging. We studied Hendra virus, a zoonotic pathogen with seasonal spillovers from bats to horses and humans. Multiple seasonal factors have been hypothesized to drive Hendra virus transmission, including food shortages, birth pulses and changes in host aggregation, but their temporal overlap has made identifying primary drivers difficult. We conducted a 4-year longitudinal study of Pteropus bats to test whether seasonal birth pulses and the resulting influx of susceptible juveniles drive Hendra virus transmission. Using a Bayesian ageing model, we aged sexually immature bats and placed them into birth cohorts. We used our age predictions to model how viral shedding and antibody responses changed as bats aged. We tracked Bartonella spp. Infection-a bacterial pathogen requiring close contact for transmission-as an indicator of transmission opportunities within each cohort for comparison. We found no evidence that seasonal birth pulses of immunologically naïve juveniles drove Hendra virus transmission. Two out of three cohorts showed substantially reduced maternal antibody transfer compared to the 2018 cohort, with seroprevalence near zero at our earliest sampling timepoints and showed no clear evidence of synchronized seroconversion. Furthermore, Bartonella infection rates were consistent across cohorts, indicating that opportunities for pathogen transmission remained consistent across cohorts despite varying viral shedding patterns. Our findings demonstrate that birth pulses alone cannot explain observed patterns of Hendra virus outbreaks. These results highlight the importance of using multiple lines of evidence to evaluate competing mechanisms underlying seasonal disease dynamics, particularly when potential drivers coincide temporally.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Animal Ecology
Published
2026-02-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.70213
Primary Topic
Virology and Viral Diseases
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Cohorts of immature Pteropus bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology

Michelle Michie, Clifton McKee, Christopher C. Broder, Agnieszka Rynda‐Apple et al.
Journal of Animal Ecology
Virology and Viral Diseases
article

Cohorts of immature Pteropus bats show interannual variation in Hendra virus serology

Michelle Michie, Clifton McKee, Christopher C. Broder, Agnieszka Rynda‐Apple, Vincent J. Munster, Spencer L. Sterling, Daniel Crowley, Benny Borremans, Laura B. Goodman, Ina Smith, Adrienne S. Dale, Lianying Yan, Caylee Falvo, Manuel Ruiz‐Aravena, Chris K. Grant, Evelyn Benson, Raina K. Plowright, Tamika J Lunn, Alison Peel, Devin N. Jones, Daniel J. Becker, Trenton Bushmaker, Y. Tina Yu, Eric D. Laing, Rasa Petraityte‐Burneikiene
article en

Abstract

Understanding the drivers of seasonal disease outbreaks remains a fundamental challenge in disease ecology. Periodic outbreaks can be driven by several seasonally varying factors, including pulses of susceptible individuals through births, changes in host behaviour and social aggregation and variation in host immunity. However, when these potential drivers overlap temporally, isolating their relative contributions to outbreak patterns becomes challenging. We studied Hendra virus, a zoonotic pathogen with seasonal spillovers from bats to horses and humans. Multiple seasonal factors have been hypothesized to drive Hendra virus transmission, including food shortages, birth pulses and changes in host aggregation, but their temporal overlap has made identifying primary drivers difficult. We conducted a 4-year longitudinal study of Pteropus bats to test whether seasonal birth pulses and the resulting influx of susceptible juveniles drive Hendra virus transmission. Using a Bayesian ageing model, we aged sexually immature bats and placed them into birth cohorts. We used our age predictions to model how viral shedding and antibody responses changed as bats aged. We tracked Bartonella spp. Infection-a bacterial pathogen requiring close contact for transmission-as an indicator of transmission opportunities within each cohort for comparison. We found no evidence that seasonal birth pulses of immunologically naïve juveniles drove Hendra virus transmission. Two out of three cohorts showed substantially reduced maternal antibody transfer compared to the 2018 cohort, with seroprevalence near zero at our earliest sampling timepoints and showed no clear evidence of synchronized seroconversion. Furthermore, Bartonella infection rates were consistent across cohorts, indicating that opportunities for pathogen transmission remained consistent across cohorts despite varying viral shedding patterns. Our findings demonstrate that birth pulses alone cannot explain observed patterns of Hendra virus outbreaks. These results highlight the importance of using multiple lines of evidence to evaluate competing mechanisms underlying seasonal disease dynamics, particularly when potential drivers coincide temporally.

Journal of Animal EcologyVol. 95(3)
Griffith University (AU), Texas Tech University (US), Henry M. Jackson Foundation (US), The University of Sydney (AU), International Medical Corps (US), Johns Hopkins University (US), Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences (US), University of Antwerp (BE), University of Georgia (US), Vilnius University (LT), Cornell University (US), Montana State University (US), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (US), CSIRO Health and Biosecurity (AU), Japan Wildlife Research Center (JP), University of Oklahoma (US), Mississippi State University (US)
National Science Foundation, Henry M. Jackson Foundation, Division of Intramural Research, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Texas Tech University, Mississippi State University, Johns Hopkins University, University of Oklahoma, Montana State University, ACT Government, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Griffith University, Queensland Government, Directorate for Biological Sciences, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Advanced Research Projects Agency, Research Committee, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NHLBI Division of Intramural Research
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