Personalization of Party Politics? Reevaluating the Role of Leaders in Voting Decisions

The decline of party loyalties and the spread of television have led to the concerning expec-tation of increased leader relevance in voters’ decisions. Using a large collection of national election studies over the last six decades, I find that there is no increase in leader importance over time, but a drop in party relevance in the 1990s followed by a gradual party comeback. I find little support for media affecting this trend. Instead, I find support for the trend aligning with the end of the Cold War and the collapse of communist ideology, which left parties with-out a vital cleavage on which to structure electoral competition, the decline of traditional class cleavages, and the subsequent changes in party strategy. My findings suggest that behavioral personalization is much less pronounced, a cautionary interpretation of the role of media, and a larger role for issue politics in voting decisions.