The Impact of National Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks on Rural Residents’ Income: Evidence from China

Agricultural industrial parks have been promoted as a key instrument for agricultural modernization, yet causal evidence of their impact on raising rural residents’ income remains limited. This study evaluates the income effects of National Modern Agricultural Industrial Parks (NMAIPs) in China, clarifying the transmission mechanisms and distributional consequences for rural households and the urban–rural income gap. Using county- and household-level panel data (2014–2022), we exploit the staggered rollout of NMAIPs as a quasi-natural experiment and employ a staggered Difference-in-Differences (DID) design with two-way fixed effects, complemented by event-study analysis. Results show that NMAIP establishment raises rural residents’ income by approximately 1.83% on average. Mechanism analysis indicates that this gain operates primarily through employment expansion, technological upgrading, and capital agglomeration. At the household level, NMAIPs significantly increase wage and operating income but have limited effects on property and transfer income, reflecting constraints in rural asset markets. Furthermore, NMAIPs reduce intra-rural inequality and moderate the urban–rural income gap following an inverted U-shaped path (initial widening followed by narrowing), as benefits diffuse through value chains. We conclude that NMAIPs are an effective policy lever for inclusive rural growth, yet their distributive outcomes could be enhanced by supporting reforms in rural factor markets and public service delivery.