The Prediction of Low-Level Jet Using Machine Learning Based on Turbulence Observations and Remote Sensing

Low-level jets (LLJs) are common strong wind structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. They have important impacts on aviation safety, wind energy utilization and pollutant dispersion. However, the formation mechanisms of LLJs are complex. Traditional parameterization schemes and numerical models still show limitations in forecasting LLJ occurrence and resolving their structures. In this study, wind lidar, near-surface turbulence and gradient meteorological observations from the Semi-Arid Climate and Environment Observatory of Lanzhou University are combined to construct a multi-source low-level dataset. Four processing modules are designed, including multi-source data fusion, turbulence preprocessing, turbulence intermittency metrics and LLJ identification, to overcome the constraints of single-platform observations. Six commonly used machine learning algorithms (LightGBM, XGBoost, CatBoost, K-nearest neighbors, Balanced Random Forest, and ExtraTrees) are compared. A two-stage classification–regression framework is then adopted. LightGBM is used for LLJ occurrence, and CatBoost is used for LLJ height and intensity, to build an LLJ-2Stage prediction system. The system performs automatic LLJ identification and predicts jet intensity and core height. For LLJ occurrence, the harmonic-mean F1-score of precision and recall reaches 0.820. The coefficient of determination R2 is 0.643 for height prediction and 0.794 for intensity prediction. Both the classification and regression parts show good accuracy and stability. The SHAP method is further applied to assess model interpretability and to identify key predictors that control LLJ occurrence, height and intensity. Results indicate that thermal variables, such as net radiation (Rn) and sensible heat flux (H), dominate LLJ occurrence and structural changes. The strength of turbulence intermittency provides valuable supplementary information for locating the LLJ core height. Two representative nocturnal LLJ cases further show a consistent near-surface evolution during the LLJ period, with enhanced TKE and reduced H, followed by a gradual recovery after decay, while Rn remains persistently low, consistent with the SHAP-indicated effects. The proposed framework predicts LLJ occurrence and structural evolution and is of significance for improving understanding of boundary layer processes, air-pollution control, wind energy utilization and low-level aviation safety.