Spatial patterns of access-density mismatch reveal infrastructure gaps and strategic opportunities for new housing

The divergence from idealized economic models can lead to a mismatch between regional access and local density. Here, theoretical explanations and empirical investigations of “access-density mismatch” are conducted to explain alignment, or misalignment, between transport infrastructure and patterns of settlement at the census block level across the fifty most populated metropolitan areas in the United States. Findings reveal: (i) a positive correlation between local density and regional access, with automobile access being more elastic than transit access, (ii) a weaker association between transit access and local density in more auto-oriented and less centralized metropolitan areas, (iii) metropolitan areas where density relative to transit access exceeds the national average exhibit higher levels of transit commuting, (iv) regional access tends to surpass local density as one moves away from the central business district, and (v) access-density mismatch is more pronounced for automobiles in city peripheries and for transit in core urban areas.