Beyond the mean: how thinking about the distribution of public opinions reduces politicians’ perceptual errors

Abstract Elected politicians regularly over-estimate the conservatism of their constituents’ preferences. While these findings have concerning implications for democratic representation, the magnitude and sources of so-called “conservative over-estimation” are poorly understood. We show that a novel approach to measuring politicians’ perceptions—which asks politicians to draw the distribution of their constituents’ preferences, rather than provide a point estimate—clarifies the magnitude and causes of conservative over-estimation. While the vast majority of politicians exhibit a conservative bias, our “perceived-distribution” task cuts the size of this bias in half. Moreover, psychological projection counterbalances conservative over-estimation among left-wing politicians but reinforces it among right-wing politicians. Our results raise questions about existing accounts of elite misperceptions and help to identify the psychological causes of conservative over-estimation.