Multiple sources of volunteered geographic information strengthen holistic estimates of lake visitation

Lakes provide human societies with a wide range of cultural ecosystem services (CES), yet these benefits are rarely quantified. Site visitation is frequently used to assign CES values to recreational destinations, but traditional approaches for estimating lake visitation have limited spatiotemporal extent. Visitation estimates increasingly leverage volunteered geographic information (VGI) to address this challenge. We compared the utility of five different sources of VGI from Flickr, eBird, iNaturalist, Twitter, and Gaia GPS, which broadly encompass lake users with different motivations for interacting with nature. We evaluated the potential for predicting on-site visitation from in-person counts by testing models informed by unique combinations of VGI sources at urban and suburban lakes in western Washington. Additionally, we investigated the amenities driving differences in relative lake visitation by modeling visitation as a function of lake attributes (e.g., tree cover, water quality, built infrastructure). All VGI sources were included in the top-performing visitation models, suggesting they provide significant and unique contributions to estimates of overall lake use (combined R2 = 0.85, in-sample testing). Given that these VGI sources reflect different types of lake users seeking unique CES, we conclude that holistic VGI visitation estimates should incorporate a diversity of VGI sources. Our results also reveal that built lakeside infrastructure is the predominant driver of visitation at lakes in western Washington, suggesting that spatially equitable updates to amenities will encourage public lake use. We urge greater consideration of the accessibility of different lake-based CES across the landscape and among diverse communities in future lake recreation planning, and suggest that VGI-based estimates of lake visitation offer a robust way to inform this process.