Infrared Spectral Energy Distribution Modeling of Velocity Excess in Maser Sources: Identifying Incipient Water Fountain Candidates

Abstract We investigated whether “velocity excess” in circumstellar maser lines can diagnose the earliest evolutionary phases of water fountains (WFs). Here, we define “velocity excess” as maser emission (e.g., H 2 O 22.235 GHz or OH 1665/1667 MHz) detected at velocities outside the velocity range of the OH 1612 MHz line, which traces the terminal expansion velocity of a spherical circumstellar envelope (CSE). Such excess velocities serve as an indicator of gas motions deviating from spherical expansion and may signify the onset of asymmetric outflows. Based on recent studies, we analyzed 17 sources showing velocity excess and fitted their infrared spectral energy distributions (SEDs) with the one-dimensional radiative transfer code DUSTY . Seven sources are well reproduced, implying outer CSEs that remain nearly spherical despite inner asymmetries. Among these, five exhibit single-peaked, asymptotic giant branch (AGB)-like SEDs, and two show double-peaked, post-AGB-like profiles. Infrared Astronomical Satellite (IRAS) variability indices and NEOWISE-R light curves reveal pulsations (∼600–1000 days) in three sources, supporting their AGB classification. Considering the magnitude of the velocity excess, two objects—IRAS 19229+1708 and IRAS 19052+0922—may represent the earliest or incipient WF phase, in which asymmetric outflows are beginning to emerge within otherwise spherical envelopes. These results support a morphological sequence in which bipolar jets and tori arise first in the central regions while the outer CSE remains spherical, and they show that selecting WF candidates via velocity excess effectively identifies objects at the onset of jet formation and early morphological transformation.