Bangladeshi coastal rice farmers navigate environmental uncertainty through adaptive management strategies

Due to saltwater intrusion, Bangladesh’s coastal rice farmers face significant challenges, creating threats to national food security. Because rice sustains millions of people, it is essential to understand how farmer risk preferences impact adaptation choices in order to maintain food production systems. This study examines how risk attitudes shape rice growing choices among 200 farming households across four southern Bangladeshi districts affected by salinity. Using contingent behavior surveys and experimental methods to assess risk preferences, we employed binary logistic regression to analyze factors influencing farming decisions and land allocation patterns. The research explored how projected rice price increases and yield declines might alter farmer responses to salinity challenges. Results reveal that risk-tolerant farmers prefer traditional rice varieties, while risk-averse farmers favor salt-tolerant cultivars. Despite mounting salinity threats, most farmers intend to continue rice production for household food security. Price incentives encourage sustained rice cultivation, but significant yield losses would drive farmers toward alternative livelihood strategies, particularly aquaculture where comparative advantages exist. The findings highlight the complex relationship between risk perception, food security priorities, and agricultural adaptation in climate-vulnerable regions. Concerns about food security frequently take precedence over economic optimization, as evidenced by farmers’ dedication to rice production, which reflects both cultural preferences and subsistence needs. Enhancing access to superior salt-tolerant rice varieties and creating integrated rice-fish farming systems should be the main goals of policy interventions. By maintaining food production and providing farmers with multiple sources of income, these strategies can help regional agricultural resilience and household food security in the face of increasing climate impacts.