From Dropout to Classroom: The Role of Mexico’s PROGRESA Education Grants in Reenrollment

School dropout remains a persistent challenge in developing countries, undermining human capital accumulation and long-term economic development. This paper examines the extent to which Mexico’s PROGRESA conditional cash transfer program influenced school enrollment and reenrollment decisions by analyzing post-program panel data with a Correlated Random Effects probit model. Results indicate that PROGRESA grants significantly increased school enrollment among girls, with the strongest gains observed at the secondary level. Reenrollment effects for girls were positive only when household childcare responsibilities were limited or when secondary schools were located nearby, highlighting the influence of family and community constraints. In contrast, boys exhibited no consistent response in either enrollment or reenrollment outcomes. These findings indicate that although conditional cash transfers can reduce educational inequality, their lasting developmental impact relies on complementary measures—such as childcare provision and improved school access—that mitigate structural barriers to reenrollment and reinforce the connection between education and inclusive growth.