Research on the Impact of New Energy Vehicles on Carbon Emissions of Urban Transportation

With the acceleration of urbanization, the growth of urban travel demand has led to rising carbon emissions, and the development of low-carbon urban transport has become particularly urgent. This study focuses on the prediction of carbon emissions in the road traffic sector of City A in 2030, and explores the potential changes in carbon emissions under different scenarios. The research objects include private cars, taxis, buses and ordinary trucks, and two prediction scenarios are constructed: baseline scenario and policy scenario. The baseline scenario reflects the natural development trend of future carbon emissions under the existing technology and policy conditions, while the policy scenario considers the implementation of new energy vehicle promotion policies and evaluates the potential contribution of new energy vehicles to reducing road traffic carbon emissions. The multiple linear regression model and S-curve model are used to predict the total number of motor vehicles under different scenarios, and the “bottom-up” method of IPCC is used to calculate the carbon emissions of transportation. The results show that the promotion of new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, has a significant effect on reducing carbon emissions in the field of transportation.