Toward refined tropical cyclone modeling via balancing multi-scale constraints in nudging-based downscaling

Regional climate models (RCMs) are widely used for tropical cyclone (TC) simulation and forecast. However, RCM-based results of large-scale environments often deviate from those represented in the driving data, which inevitably results in modeling errors, especially for TC tracks. For downscaling research, a practical strategy is to use large-scale nudging in the outer domain (OD) and meanwhile avoid over-constraints for the dynamics in the inner domain (ID). Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the above strategy, particularly from the perspective of avoiding large-scale inconsistencies between RCM-based results and the driving data, remains less explored. This study extends the concept of domain-size sensitivity, previously framed in the context of large-scale or seasonal-to-interannual variability in regional climate modeling, to TC modeling under the OD-sited nudging framework, with a focus on the role of the unnudged ID size. These results show that oversized IDs reduce large-scale constraint, amplifying internal RCM variability and increasing track errors. Conversely, while reducing ID size improves the track accuracy, excessively small IDs degrade intensity representation. Based on multi-case analysis, the study offers preliminary practical guidance for ID configuration to balance track and intensity performance in TC downscaling applications.

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Publication Details

Journal
Physics of Fluids
Published
2026-02-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0303437
Primary Topic
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
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article

Toward refined tropical cyclone modeling via balancing multi-scale constraints in nudging-based downscaling

Yuncheng He, Jiyang Fu, Yujie Liu, Cansheng He
Physics of Fluids
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
article

Toward refined tropical cyclone modeling via balancing multi-scale constraints in nudging-based downscaling

Yuncheng He, Jiyang Fu, Yujie Liu, Cansheng He
article en

Abstract

Regional climate models (RCMs) are widely used for tropical cyclone (TC) simulation and forecast. However, RCM-based results of large-scale environments often deviate from those represented in the driving data, which inevitably results in modeling errors, especially for TC tracks. For downscaling research, a practical strategy is to use large-scale nudging in the outer domain (OD) and meanwhile avoid over-constraints for the dynamics in the inner domain (ID). Nevertheless, the effectiveness of the above strategy, particularly from the perspective of avoiding large-scale inconsistencies between RCM-based results and the driving data, remains less explored. This study extends the concept of domain-size sensitivity, previously framed in the context of large-scale or seasonal-to-interannual variability in regional climate modeling, to TC modeling under the OD-sited nudging framework, with a focus on the role of the unnudged ID size. These results show that oversized IDs reduce large-scale constraint, amplifying internal RCM variability and increasing track errors. Conversely, while reducing ID size improves the track accuracy, excessively small IDs degrade intensity representation. Based on multi-case analysis, the study offers preliminary practical guidance for ID configuration to balance track and intensity performance in TC downscaling applications.

Physics of FluidsVol. 38(2)
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (US), Guangzhou University (CN), Key Laboratory of Guangdong Province (CN)
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 78%
Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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