Mathematical modeling of cholera transmission: Evaluating the role of spiritual holy water treatment practices for cholera control in ethiopia

Cholera remains a significant health challenge in Ethiopia, where holy water is traditionally used to treat the disease. However, without proper treatment, holy water can become contaminated and contribute to the spread of cholera. This study investigates the transmission dynamics of cholera and evaluates the role of holy water treatment as a control measure. A mathematical model, formulated with non-linear ordinary differential equations, was developed to explore the interactions between susceptible individuals, infected individuals, and bacterial concentrations. Key model parameters, such as the human-to-human transmission rate and the effectiveness of holy water treatment, were varied in the simulations. The study found that when the Effective reproduction number is less than one, cholera diminishes and the population reaches a stable disease-free state. When the Effective reproduction number exceeds one, the disease persists in an endemic equilibrium. Importantly, the results showed that improving the effectiveness of holy water treatment significantly reduces bacterial concentration, which in turn helps control the spread of cholera. The novelty of this work lies in integrating a culturally relevant control strategy holy water treatment into a mathematical framework to assess its impact on cholera transmission. This approach extends beyond previous studies by incorporating local practices into disease management, providing valuable insights into how these practices can be optimized for public health. The findings highlight the importance of improving holy water treatment to reduce bacterial contamination and cholera transmission. Further research is needed to refine these strategies and explore optimal control measures to strengthen cholera control efforts in Ethiopia.