‘That is the bet’: theories of change in the strategies of the Italian climate movement

Research on differences within the climate movement has been focusing for a long time on the emergence of the ‘climate justice’ frame within this trajectory as a way out of a post-political understanding of climate action, as well as on tensions on the ‘radical’ vs. ‘reformist’ axis. Still, recent cases of climate action seem to call for a deeper analysis: while the climate justice framework is ubiquitous, internal differences within the movement are far from over. This article aims to address this issue, focusing on the strategic choices of movement actors. We aim to contribute to the literature on social movement strategies by pointing out the role of theories of change, i.e. the meta-strategic logics on how actors plan to achieve their goals and from which they derive their choice of targets, means, audience, and so on. Drawing on qualitative interivews to activists, our exploratory article proposes a framework to analyse theories of change and applies it to the three main actors of the Italian climate movement: Fridays For Future (FFF), Extinction Rebellion (XR) and Ultima Generazione (UG, part of the A22 network). Furthermore, the analysis points out how theories of change contribute to shaping how actors address strategic dilemmas.