Changes in ecosystem service values due to urbanization in the national Capital Region of India (2005–2025)

The National Capital Region of India, centered around Delhi, has witnessed rapid urban expansion over the past two decades, extending far beyond the city’s core into adjoining districts. This study assesses how land cover changes between 2005 and 2025 have influenced the economic value of ecosystem services across the region. Using a benefit transfer approach, ecosystem services were classified as provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural, and linked to per-hectare values derived from global valuation frameworks adapted to local ecological and topographic conditions. High-resolution remote sensing data, with a spatial detail of 23.5 m before 2020 and 10 m thereafter, improved the accuracy of detecting and valuing land cover transformations. The results show substantial declines in regulating and supporting services, particularly in Faridabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, and Delhi, while provisioning services exhibit mixed patterns and cultural services display modest increases. These findings highlight how urban growth has eroded ecological resilience and weakened the natural systems that support urban life. The deterioration of regulating services has also intensified environmental and health stresses such as heat exposure, flooding, and pollution, disproportionately affecting low-income and densely populated communities. By linking ecological change with infrastructure performance and human well-being, the study positions ecosystem 1 service valuation as an essential tool for rethinking urban development through a lens of sustainability, resilience, and equity.