Cold‐blooded commerce: Characterizing and predicting trade in Australian squamates

Abstract Reptiles are popular exotic pets worldwide, with species valued for rarity, uniqueness, and colorful appearances. Despite Australia having banned the commercial export of native wildlife for several decades, Australian reptiles continually accumulate in international trade. For trade interventions to be most effective, approaches must be tailored to specific taxa or regions, based on comprehensive understandings of trade dynamics. We characterized the diversity of trade in endemic Australian squamates and used boosted regression trees (fitting separate models for snakes and lizards) to predict which species may be targeted for future trade. Contrary to expectations, species' color and patterning had little impact on trade presence. The main trait influencing presence was body size (length and mass), with larger species more likely to be traded. There was also a phylogenetic signal in trade; the larger‐bodied Pythonidae and Varanidae families were over‐represented, as were Australian geckos (Carphodactylidae and Diplodactylidae). From this novel understanding of trade, we predicted that 59 species possess traits that make them potential targets for future trade. Our results provide government enforcement agencies with detailed information on at‐risk species with the hope of improving preventative enforcement capabilities, protecting populations before they can be detrimentally impacted by illegal trade.