Perceptions of the Belgian Coast through time: how resident views affect acceptance of blue projects and place attachment

Purpose Opposition to change is a critical barrier for coastal transitions. It is recently argued that such opposition may arise from “climax thinking”, the belief that current landscapes have reached an ideal state and should remain as they are. However, people’s evaluations of place over time (past, present and future) remain understudied, leaving it unknown whether climax thinking is common, whether other evaluations prevail, and what impact these have on support for change. This study aims to explore how residents evaluate the Belgian coast over time and whether this affects acceptance of “blue projects” that involve changes to the place (i.e. development of dunes, dikes, aquaculture, ports, tourism) and their place attachment. Design/methodology/approach Data were collected among 406 Belgian coastal residents. Respondents’ evaluations of the coast over time were used for cluster analysis. Chi-square and ANOVA tests revealed whether identified clusters differed in socio-demographics, acceptance of blue projects and place attachment. Findings Four clusters emerged: strong pessimists, moderate pessimists, climax thinkers and optimists. There was no evidence that climax thinking was characterized by lower acceptance. Instead, optimism increased and pessimism decreased acceptance, except for dunes. Climax thinking and optimism were characterized by higher attachment, whilst (strong) pessimism seemed to weaken place attachment. Originality/value This study advances understanding of residents’ evaluation of the Belgian coast over time, revealing four profile types and how these relate to acceptance of blue projects and place attachment. This demonstrates the value of investigating climax thinking – alongside optimism and pessimism – to better understand and address factors influencing openness to change.