Interpretability Evaluation Method for Driving Stability on Curved Road Sections with Trajectory Uncertainty

This study was conducted in order to enrich the safety evaluation system of vehicles on complex road sections and provide quantitative support for speed control and driving decision-making. To address the driving stability issue caused by trajectory uncertainty on curved roads, we analyzed lane-changing stability and found that trajectory variations induce a step change in centrifugal force, aggravating lateral instability. Secondly, we developed a variety of simulation schemes to determine the stability limit speed under multi-source information fusion and constructed the corresponding database. Finally, we established an interpretable driving stability evaluation method based on the Differential Evolution-Extended Belief Rule Base-Shapley Additive Explanations (DB-EBRB-SHAP) model. This model incorporates driving behavior as a qualitative variable into the hybrid framework, and its accuracy was further enhanced through parameter optimization. The results demonstrate that the model achieves high evaluation accuracy for driving stability on curved road sections (MAE = 0.0306 and RMSE = 0.0363). Interpretability analysis reveals that curve radius and lane-changing behavior are the key influencing parameters; the negative interaction effect between the two on driving stability will weaken as the curve radius increases.