The mystery of the sluggish upgrade of Japan's trade structure: An explanatory perspective on the deepening of digital trade rules

The rapid development of global digital trade rules is reshaping the international division of labor and the structural evolution of global trade. Based on panel data covering Japan's trade with 77 partner countries from 2005 to 2023, this study empirically investigates the impact of digital trade rule deepening on Japan's export structure. The results indicate that within the "American template" framework dominated by developed economies, the deepening of digital trade rules significantly constrains the upgrading of Japan's export structure in high-tech manufacturing, particularly in digital services. Mechanism analysis reveals a dual effect: while digital technologies lower traditional trade costs through simplified customs procedures, binding provisions on data governance and privacy protection increase compliance and technological adaptation costs, thereby inhibiting structural optimization. Furthermore, institutional distance amplifies this inhibitory effect. When Japan's institutional gap with its trading partners is larger, the adverse effects of privacy and cooperation clauses become more pronounced. The study suggests that Japan should promote regional rule innovation, advance digital provisions better aligned with regional realities under frameworks such as the CPTPP and RCEP, and strengthen the optimization of trade structure and long-term competitiveness. • Deepening digital trade rules suppresses Japan’s export structure upgrading. • Privacy and cooperation clauses exert the most significant inhibitory effects. • Compliance and adaptation costs outweigh reductions in traditional trade costs. • Institutional distance significantly amplifies the negative trade structural impact.