Modeling and Factor Assessment of Pond Silting in Forest-Steppe Agrolandscapes of the Central Russian Upland

This paper presents the results of assessing the influence of siltation factors in 23 ponds in one of the most agriculturally developed macro-regions of European Russia—the Central Russian Upland. Key natural and anthropogenic factors determining the intensity of pond siltation have been identified, and a typification of ponds has been developed to predict the rate of accumulation of bottom sediments in them. For the typification, statistical methods such as correlation analysis (Spearman’s coefficient), cluster and factor analysis, and the Random Forest machine learning algorithm were used. Correlation analysis revealed that the percentage of catchment cultivation has a significant effect (r = 0.55, p < 0.01) on the volume of bottom sediments, while soil loss (r = 0.47, p < 0.05) and vertical terrain dissection (r = 0.43, p < 0.05) have a moderate effect. The most important factors in the siltation process are the average slope of the catchment (24.5%), the percentage of cultivated soils (18.8%), and the average annual soil loss (14.1%). All factors were grouped into three clusters, which explained 77.8% of the variance. As a result, four pond types were identified, differing in their dominant limiting factors: pond hydrological characteristics, catchment morphometry, and the degree of anthropogenic transformation of the catchment. Verification of the typification was carried out based on the calculation of annual soil losses considering the sediment delivery coefficient; the discrepancies between the calculated and actual pond sediment volumes were 1.2–10.0%. The proposed approach, which recommends a multi-scale assessment of potential sediment formation volumes using remote sensing data and thematic mapping, offers heuristic potential for identifying the most degraded water bodies. This enables the planning of priority sites and rehabilitation measures for their restoration within the framework of regional soil and water conservation programs.