ENERGY TRANSITION AND MINING REINDUSTRIALIZATION IN COLOMBIA: A THREE PHASE MODEL TOWARDS THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

This paper evaluates a baseline scenario of inertial continuity (S0), understood as continued reliance on the export of unprocessed mineral–energy commodities, and contrasts it with a three-phase techno-strategic pathway. Phase I (H1) treats selective “transition mining” as a governed financial lever in which projects must meet high environmental, social, and governance (ESG) standards and a fixed share of extractive rents is earmarked to fund Phase II industrialization (H2) and Phase III circular supply (H3). The analysis indicates that Colombia’s most resilient trajectory is sequential and non-mutually exclusive. Near-term rents can finance midstream capability, while the longer-term objective is to consolidate a regional urbanmining hub.