Integrated Hydrological and Water Allocation Modelling for Drought Management and Restriction Planning in a Regulated River Basin: Application to the Olt River Basin (Romania)

Effective Water Resource Management (WRM) requires the integration of physical hydrological processes with institutional drought response plans. In Romania, the Olt River Basin represents one of the most highly regulated catchments, where water security is maintained through a series of staged restriction measures (TR1–TR3). However, the efficacy of these measures under the shifting baselines of the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario remains poorly understood. This study addresses this gap by coupling rainfall–runoff dynamics with a priority-based allocation model to evaluate the reliability of current drought protocols in a climate-perturbed future. Rainfall–runoff modelling, reservoir operation, priority-based allocation, environmental flow constraints, and officially applied drought restriction plans were combined within a single modelling environment. Under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario, total basin runoff decreased by approximately 13.3%, leading to more frequent activation of restriction stages and reduced allocation reliability.