Analyzing the Impact of Vandalism, Hoarding, and Strikes on Fuel Distribution in Nigeria

Fuel scarcity remains a recurrent challenge in Nigeria, with significant socioeconomic consequences despite the country’s status as a major crude oil producer. This study develops a novel deterministic mathematical model to examine the dynamics of petroleum product distribution in Nigeria’s downstream sector, with particular emphasis on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). The model explicitly incorporates key disruption and behavioral mechanisms: pipeline vandalism, industrial actions, product diversion, and hoarding that collectively drive persistent fuel shortages. The model’s feasibility, positivity of solutions, and existence and uniqueness were established, ensuring consistency with real-world operational conditions. Five equilibrium points were identified, reflecting distinct operational regimes within the distribution network. A critical distribution threshold was analytically derived and numerically validated, revealing that a minimum supply of approximately 42 million liters of PMS per day is required to satisfy demand and eliminate fuel queues. Local and global stability analyses, conducted using Lyapunov functions and the Routh–Hurwitz criteria, demonstrate that stable fuel distribution is achievable under effective policy coordination and stakeholder compliance. Numerical simulations show that hoarding by private retail marketers substantially intensifies scarcity, while industrial actions by transporters exert a more severe disruption than pipeline vandalism. The results further highlight the stabilizing role of alternative transportation routes, such as rail systems, in mitigating infrastructure failures and road-based logistics risks. Although refinery sources are aggregated and rail transport is idealized, the proposed framework offers a robust and adaptable tool for policy analysis, with relevance to both oil-producing and fuel-import-dependent economies.