On the Conceptual Origin of the H0 Tension, Universal Deceleration, and the Non-universality of Cosmological Estimators

The so-called H₀ tension — the persistent discrepancy between local distance ladder measurements (H₀ ≈ 73 km/s/Mpc) and CMB-derived values (H₀ ≈ 67 km/s/Mpc) — has been conventionally interpreted as an anomaly requiring new physics or undiscovered systematic errors. This technical note argues that this interpretation rests on an undemonstrated assumption: that a single universal value of H₀ must be recovered by all measurement procedures. Building on the MRUV cosmological framework established in Prevedello (2025a, 2025b), where the universal deceleration parameter Φ ≈ 5.57 × 10⁻¹⁰ m/s² replaces dark matter and dark energy as the fundamental physical invariant, we demonstrate that H₀ is not a universal constant but a procedure-dependent estimator: Ĥ = Ĥ(Π, D), where Π denotes the inference pipeline and D the physical domain. Under conditions of operational non-equivalence between pipelines — formally established in Propositions A.1 and A.2 — the persistence of ΔH₀ is a methodological inevitability, not a measurement failure. The kinematic crossing at z ≈ 0.38, confirmed independently by cosmic chronometers with 0.007σ agreement without parameter adjustment, provides an empirical bridge between frameworks. The recent TDCOSMO 2025 result (H₀ = 71.6 +3.9/−3.3 km/s/Mpc), intermediate between CMB and local ladder values, is interpreted as direct evidence of this estimator non-universality. Four testable predictions with explicit falsification criteria are presented.

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Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-02-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18449703
Primary Topic
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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article
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article

On the Conceptual Origin of the H0 Tension, Universal Deceleration, and the Non-universality of Cosmological Estimators

Celso Luiz Prevedello
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
article

On the Conceptual Origin of the H0 Tension, Universal Deceleration, and the Non-universality of Cosmological Estimators

Celso Luiz Prevedello
article en

Abstract

The so-called H₀ tension — the persistent discrepancy between local distance ladder measurements (H₀ ≈ 73 km/s/Mpc) and CMB-derived values (H₀ ≈ 67 km/s/Mpc) — has been conventionally interpreted as an anomaly requiring new physics or undiscovered systematic errors. This technical note argues that this interpretation rests on an undemonstrated assumption: that a single universal value of H₀ must be recovered by all measurement procedures. Building on the MRUV cosmological framework established in Prevedello (2025a, 2025b), where the universal deceleration parameter Φ ≈ 5.57 × 10⁻¹⁰ m/s² replaces dark matter and dark energy as the fundamental physical invariant, we demonstrate that H₀ is not a universal constant but a procedure-dependent estimator: Ĥ = Ĥ(Π, D), where Π denotes the inference pipeline and D the physical domain. Under conditions of operational non-equivalence between pipelines — formally established in Propositions A.1 and A.2 — the persistence of ΔH₀ is a methodological inevitability, not a measurement failure. The kinematic crossing at z ≈ 0.38, confirmed independently by cosmic chronometers with 0.007σ agreement without parameter adjustment, provides an empirical bridge between frameworks. The recent TDCOSMO 2025 result (H₀ = 71.6 +3.9/−3.3 km/s/Mpc), intermediate between CMB and local ladder values, is interpreted as direct evidence of this estimator non-universality. Four testable predictions with explicit falsification criteria are presented.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Universidade Federal do Paraná (BR)
Openalex Percentile: Top 68%
Cosmology and Gravitation Theories
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