High emissions, low engagement? How members of parliament represent the carbon footprint of their constituents

Abstract Many affluent democracies have pledged to achieve ‘net zero’ greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century. Achieving these targets would denote important national contributions to the international goal of keeping global warming ‘well below’ 2°C as agreed in the 2015 Paris agreement. Yet pursuing the necessary long-term decarbonisation policies influencing individuals’ everyday lives will require a considerable and enduring level of political leadership. But what enables or constrains politicians to perform such leadership? To date, little is known about the factors influencing politicians’ willingness to advocate for decarbonisation measures in the short-term for the long-term gain of climate change mitigation. This study draws on rare data of consumers’ carbon footprints, parliamentary speechmaking, and qualitative elite interviews in a mixed-methods research design to study how the intensity of constituents’ consumption-based carbon emissions influences the decarbonisation-focused behaviour of members of parliament (MPs) in the UK. Our quantitative findings reveal that MPs pay considerably less attention to decarbonisation issues when they represent carbon-intense constituencies. Moreover, this effect is particularly pronounced for Conservative MPs and amplified in marginal seats. The qualitative interview evidence helps to contextualise these quantitative findings, suggesting that MPs consider the decarbonisation of lifestyles a crucial political challenge and that their electoral considerations and party-political contexts play an important role in how they handle this challenge. Overall, our study draws a sobering picture of politicians’ willingness to sacrifice short-term electoral gains for the long-term prospect of net zero, especially for those MPs representing constituencies that could make high-impact contributions to nationwide emission cuts.