Trend of North African Dust Storms and Potential Link to Climate Change

Abstract Over recent decades, North African dust storms have undergone marked variability, reflecting complex interactions between regional climate processes and environmental change. Using four decades (1984–2023) of visibility‐based observational records, we examine regional and seasonal trends in dust storm frequency across the Sahel and the Sahara, capturing their distinct dust dynamics. Results reveal a significant decline in dust activity in both regions, most pronounced during pre‐monsoon (MAM) and monsoon (JJA) seasons in the Sahel, and during post‐monsoon (SON) and dry season (DJF) in the Sahara. Integrating surface observations with local meteorology (precipitation, surface wind speed, vegetation) and climate indices (AMO, NAO, MEI), we find the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) as the primary driver, with region‐specific effects: in the Sahel, AMO‐driven warming and rainfall increase vegetation, suppressing dust; in the Sahara, AMO intensifies the Saharan Heat Low (SHL) and elevates temperatures, modulating dust through atmospheric stability and wind patterns. Local meteorology further differentiates responses, with precipitation and Leaf Area Index (LAI) dominating dust variability in the Sahel, while SHL strength and surface winds are most influential in the Sahara. By explicitly separating the Sahel and Sahara and integrating multiple drivers, this study provides a more spatially resolved understanding of dust–climate link and suggests continued declines in North African dust storm activity under future warming. These findings offer critical constraints for improving dust emission projections in climate models.