Diagnosis of Multiscalar Prospective Planning in Santa Marta: Gaps and Opportunities for Coastal-Marine Governance

Land-use planning in Latin American coastal cities faces the challenge of integrating visions of the future with multiscale approaches amid high socio-environmental pressure. Using a mixed methodology that included documentary and comparative analysis of regulatory and planning instruments, workshops with experts, and evaluation matrices, this article analyzes the prospective and multiscale capabilities of the 2020–2032 Land Use Plan for the district of Santa Marta. This study provides a methodological and applied novelty by integrating, for the first time in this context, a dual analytical framework that simultaneously assesses the quality of the prospective dimension and the degree of multi-scalar articulation in coastal spatial planning. The study area is a strategic coastal territory exposed to environmental, urban, and socio-ecological pressures. The results reveal limitations in integrating future scenarios, polycentric governance, and adaptive coastal management, as well as a weak prospective approach limited to short time horizons, without constructed scenarios or early warning systems. At the same time, there is fragmented multiscale coordination between the local, regional, and national levels. These limitations partly explain the socio-environmental conflicts identified, particularly at the land-sea interface, where there is an apparent disconnect between urban planning and coastal management. On the other hand, significant progress has been made in the biophysical and social characterization of the territory. Our analysis generated specific knowledge for fast-growing intermediate cities, a critical type of coastal settlement, but less studied than large metropolises. The study provides a replicable framework for other seaside towns in the region. The study concludes that overcoming these gaps requires systematically incorporating forward-looking instruments and strengthening multilevel governance mechanisms. To this end, it summarizes lessons learned for more adaptive, resilient territorial planning in coastal contexts.