Mapping risk areas for the occurrence of Peste des petits ruminants in the Plateau, Bauchi, and Kano states in Nigeria by combining expert knowledge and field surveys on animal mobility

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious disease of small ruminants that causes significant economic losses. The disease is endemic in most sub-Saharan countries, such as Nigeria. Despite decades of widespread vaccination efforts, the disease persists due to significant animal movements, particularly transhumance and commercial trade. This facilitates the rapid spread of the disease across Nigerian states, particularly in the semi-arid north, where there is frequent animal movement. This study aimed to identify high-risk areas for PPR transmission in the Plateau, Bauchi, and Kano states using rigorous, systematic multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). The risk factors for PPR occurrence and their relative importance were identified through a literature review and consultation with PPR experts. The corresponding geographic data were collected, standardised, weighted and combined to pinpoint the areas most likely to experience disease outbreaks. The results were validated using a recent PPR seroprevalence survey conducted in the three states. Risk factors such as climate, small ruminant density, proximity to dry areas, small ruminant commercial and transhumance movements were identified as drivers of disease occurrence. Risk maps could be used to inform targeted disease control strategies.