Coupling Response Mechanisms of Groundwater and Land Subsidence in the North China Plain Under Extreme Rainfall

Against the backdrop of the increasing frequency of extreme hydrological events and persistent over-extraction of groundwater, the North China Plain (NCP) is facing significant land subsidence. This study systematically analyzed the surface subsidence response patterns and mechanisms of the NCP during extreme rainfall events by integrating Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, environmental load models, well data, and precipitation records. The main findings are as follows: (1) From 2002 to 2020, the groundwater storage change (GWSC) in most of the study area declined at an average rate of trend about 5 cm/yr, while from 2021 to 2024, influenced by heavy rainfall recharge, GWSC recovered with a mean rate of trend about 7 cm/yr; (2) During the extreme rainfall event from 1 July to 31 August 2023, the environmental loading model effectively captured the vertical deformation caused by hydrological loading, showing general consistency with GNSS monitoring results in spatial distribution. Most GNSS stations experienced rapid subsidence during the event (GNSS: 5 mm, model: 2 mm), followed by a gradual rebound after the extreme rainfall, consistent with elastic theory; (3) The deformation at the TJBH station exhibited anomalies attributable to porous elastic effects; (4) Integrated well data confirmed that rainfall recharge primarily influences shallow groundwater. This study reveals the multiple mechanisms underlying extreme hydrological induced land subsidence in the NCP.