Logistics connectivity, foreign investments and trade relationships in ASEAN countries

Purpose This study examines the causal relationships among the export volume index, the liner shipping connectivity index (LSCI) and foreign direct investment (FDI, net inflows as % of GDP) for the five founding members of ASEAN – Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand – during the 2006–2021 period. Design/methodology/approach The analysis applies the panel bootstrap causality test developed by Kónya (2006), which allows for country-specific inferences without requiring cross-sectional independence or parameter homogeneity. Three models are estimated to identify the direction and nature of causal linkages among the variables. Findings The results show evidence of Granger causality from LSCI and FDI to exports in the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, with positive estimated coefficients indicating that stronger maritime connectivity and investment inflows are associated with higher export performance. Causality also runs from exports to LSCI in Indonesia and the Philippines, suggesting that trade expansion stimulates infrastructure improvements. While FDI negatively affects LSCI in Indonesia, a positive coefficient is observed for the Philippines. In addition, LSCI Granger-causes FDI in the Philippines and Singapore, reflecting the role of maritime connectivity in attracting investment. These results highlight substantial cross-country heterogeneity in trade, logistics and investment dynamics. Research limitations/implications The analysis is limited to five ASEAN founding members and to the 2006–2021 period due to the availability of the LSCI data. Future research may extend the analysis to other ASEAN economies or incorporate additional macroeconomic factors. Practical implications The findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance maritime infrastructure, attract FDI and strengthen regional trade integration through improved logistic connectivity. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature by simultaneously examining the bidirectional and country-specific causal linkages among maritime connectivity, trade and investment using a robust panel bootstrap approach, offering new empirical evidence on the structural heterogeneity of ASEAN economies.