Combining Machine Learning and MCR Model to Construct Urban Ventilation Corridors

The heat island effect and air stagnation issues caused by high-density built-up areas are becoming increasingly severe. Optimising urban ventilation structures and establishing ventilation corridors have become key approaches to improving the urban thermal environment and enhancing liveability. However, traditional methods for constructing ventilation corridors often rely on empirical weighting or linear models, which struggle to accurately reveal the resistance coefficients of resistance indicators and fail to reflect the threshold at which indicators transition between positive and negative impacts. Consequently, this study employs Shanghai, China, as a case study, integrating machine learning models with the minimum cost path (MCR) model. Key variables were screened through multiple linear regression and variance inflation factor (VIF) analysis. Subsequently, machine learning models were compared to select the optimal model, with parameter optimisation conducted using Optuna, followed by computational implementation. The results indicate that built environment factors (such as building height, shape complexity, and road density) exert a significantly greater influence on ventilation potential than natural green space factors. By introducing the SHAP method, the positive and negative effects of each indicator on the ventilation environment and their threshold relationships were revealed. Negative indicators were converted into ventilation resistance factors to construct a resistance surface. Building upon this, cold and heat sources were identified using LST, NPP, and population density data. The MCR model was then employed to calculate the minimum resistance paths from cold to heat sources, forming an urban ventilation corridor network. The results indicate that primary corridors align with prevailing wind directions, following urban rivers and low-density green spaces. This study reveals the nonlinear effects of building and green space elements on ventilation systems, proposing machine learning-based optimisation strategies for ventilation corridors. It provides quantitative decision support for mitigating the urban heat island effect and enhancing city livability.