The 15-min city in transition: Spatial and structural evolution of proximity to essential services in Sweden over 25 years

This study investigates how neighborhood-scale proximity to key urban social functions (USFs)—has changed across Sweden between 1992 and 2017, and to what extent these shifts can be attributed to relocations of population and/or USFs. Drawing on longitudinal, geocoded register data covering the entire Swedish population and all workplaces, the study takes an exploratory, descriptive approach to map proximity dynamics over time. The analysis focuses on nine everyday USFs: pharmacies, district healthcare centers, dentists, preschools, primary schools, grocery stores, convenience stores (e.g., corner shops, bakeries), restaurants, and clothing/shoe stores. By disaggregating trends across these different functions, the study highlights the interplay between USF structural changes (e.g., regulatory regimes, market development), and population distribution in shaping proximity outcomes. Findings show that proximity is not static but evolves over time—though in geographically uneven and function-specific ways. While the share of residents living in neighborhoods that contain some services, such as pharmacies and restaurants, has generally improved, neighborhood-level presence of others—particularly grocery stores, convenience stores, and clothing/shoe retailers—has declined. For functions like preschools, primary schools, and dentists, proximity has improved in larger cities but worsened in smaller urban areas, revealing growing regional disparities. These patterns are discussed in the context of ongoing centralization of market-driven services and mixed trends among more policy-regulated functions. Overall, the study underscores the need to complement proximity-based planning frameworks with a deeper understanding of structural transformations and governance arrangements. Such integration is crucial to achieving equitable and sustainable goals within the evolving 15-min city paradigm. • Explores changes in proximity to urban social functions between 1992 and 2017 in Sweden. • Proximity to pharmacies and restaurants improved but declined to key retailers. • Proximity to schools and dentists grew in cities but fell in smaller areas. • Changes stem from both population shifts and service relocations. • Highlights the need to consider the regulatory regimes governing service locations.