Application of Dynamical Systems Theory for Cross-Border Cooperation in the Greater Region

This working paper introduces the methodology of the Dynamical Territorial Impact Assessment (DyTIA), developed through the analysis of the INTERREG programs in the Greater Region. It starts from the notion that existing impact assessments are largely static and thus fail to capture the complex, non-linear dynamics of cross-border areas. The paper is structured into seven main sections: the introduction and the section dealing with static and process-oriented approaches are followed by theoretical foundations of dynamical systems theory together with the expanded paradigm of resilience (absorption, adaptation, transformation, exaptibility). The subsequent sections present the empirical analysis of the Greater Region and its INTERREG programs, including models of scenarios, networks, and resilience indicators. The central chapter applies the DyTIA approach to the current INTERREG NEXT program, highlighting the role of digital twin simulations under conditions of budget reductions. The paper concludes with a critical discussion of opportunities and limitations. It also formulates policy recommendations, thereby contributing to the predictive governance of European cross-border regions.