Assessment of land use transition, trend, shift & directional distribution in the Ganga Basin

The research is a mapping of terrestrial environmental services of each of the land use/land cover (LULC) types in the Ganga Basin, which is among the densely populated river systems in the world. The region is highly vulnerable to extreme events, with intensified agricultural activities aimed at ensuring food security. Shift-point detection is used to identify critical periods of abrupt land-use change, while land-use transition matrices reveal the direction and magnitude of class conversions over time. Trend magnitude analysis quantifies the intensity of change, and directional distribution captures spatial dispersion patterns. Multivariate statistical methods integrate multiple drivers and variables, providing a holistic understanding of the socio-environmental interactions shaping LULC dynamics. ESA-linked land cover data available since 1992, with a spatial resolution of 300 m, were analyzed to assess spatiotemporal changes from 1992 to 2020. The results indicate that the most pronounced shifting patterns occurred between 2002 and 2008. Land-use transitions over the study period were classified into 47 conversion classes. Over 29 years, the Ganga Basin experienced a substantial increase in settlements (270.9%) and a decline in grassland (− 8.14%). Settlements exhibited the largest mean-center shift (89.08 km), followed by wetland–marsh areas (65.83 km). Modified Mann–Kendall and Sen’s slope analyses show significant increasing trends for settlements (292.05 km²/year), forests (120.45 km²/year), water bodies (17.86 km²/year), bare areas (3.50 km²/year), and wetlands (0.27 km²/year), while agriculture (− 406.35 km²/year), grassland (− 38.12 km²/year), and sparse vegetation (− 13.54 km²/year) show significant declining trends. Decadal analysis further reveals maximum growth of settlements (83.55%), wetlands (9.82%), and bare areas (1.72%) between 2001 and 2010. Overall, habitation areas expanded markedly from 1992 to 2020, whereas snow and ice remained largely unchanged. These findings support governments, policymakers, and communities in spatial planning and land management, enabling informed decision-making and implementation of development programs aligned with Agenda 2030 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.