Climate Change and Thermal Dynamics of the Lake Sevan Basin (Armenia): Observational Insights and Future Projections

The Lake Sevan basin is particularly sensitive to climate change due to its continental climate and mountainous terrain, which collectively amplify climatic impacts. This study aimed to assess the influence of climate change on the thermal dynamics of the basin by analyzing both historical and projected temperature variations. Over the past three decades, the region has experienced a marked rise in air temperatures. Seasonal variability revealed distinct contrasts between winter and summer, with winter exhibiting greater fluctuations, ranging from 1.67 to 2.41 °C, compared to the more stable summer range of 0.81 to 1.41 °C. An analysis of heat inflow and outflow patterns demonstrated a moderating effect of Lake Sevan on temperature extremes. Stations, located near the lake, recorded lower levels of heat inflow and outflow, indicating that the lake’s thermal inertia helps buffer seasonal temperature extremes. In contrast, stations situated farther from the lake exhibited more pronounced fluctuations, reflecting the absence of this stabilizing influence. These results underscore the lake’s critical role in modulating the local climate by dampening extreme thermal variations. Additionally, comparative analysis of air and water temperature trends revealed that, while both exhibit warming, air temperatures show greater interannual variability. In contrast, water temperatures remained more stable, particularly during winter, due to the lake’s thermal inertia. Future climate projections for the Lake Sevan region, based on CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) ensemble outputs under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5), suggest a persistent warming trend throughout the 21st century. We project that the most significant increases are expected during summer months, with an anticipated mean annual temperature rise of up to 6 °C by the end of the century under the high-emission scenario (SSP5–8.5).