Impact of Global Changes on the Habitat in a Protected Area: A Twenty-Year Diachronic Analysis in Aspromonte National Park (Southern Italy)

Global change represents one of the most pressing threats to ecosystems, profoundly influencing habitats and redefining management and conservation priorities. Rising temperatures, altered precipitation regimes, invasive species and the increasing frequency of extreme events, such as prolonged droughts and wildfires, are modifying the composition, structure, and resilience of forests. Often, these changes result in habitat fragmentation, which isolates populations and diminishes their ability to adapt. This situation calls for an urgent reassessment of traditional protected area management practices. In response to climate change, it is essential to prioritize conservation strategies that focus on adaptation and maintaining biodiversity, while combating the spread of invasive species. For this reason, this study aims to analyze the impact of global changes on forest vegetation within protected areas, using Aspromonte National Park, a highly biodiverse region, as a case study. It evaluates the transformations in habitat cover and fragmentation over twenty years by comparing the 2001 vegetation map of Aspromonte National Park with the Map of Nature of the Calabria region, to quantify spatial and temporal habitat variations using QGIS 3.42.3 software. Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis (MSPA) and FRAGSTATS v4.2 were employed to evaluate habitat fragmentation. The results indicate that most forest habitats have experienced a slight increase in area over the past 20 years. However, the area occupied by Pinus nigra subsp. laricio forests (Habitat 42.65) has decreased significantly, most likely due to repeated fires in previous years. In conclusion, this study establishes a scientific foundation for guiding conservation policies in the protected area and promoting the resilience of native plant communities against global change. This is essential for ensuring their survival for future generations while mitigating both habitat fragmentation and the introduction and spread of non-native species.