The Dynamics of Global–Regional Powers’ Interactions: A Systemic Policy Approach Analysis

Abstract In today’s multipolar international system—shaped by the legacies of the post-Cold War order, intensifying US–China rivalry, Russia’s assertiveness, and the rising agency of Global South actors—the interactions between global and regional powers have become pivotal, yet remain theoretically underexplored. This paper examines these dynamics by analyzing the limitations global powers face in shaping regional actors’ behavior and the strategic agency regional powers employ to contest or navigate external influence. Using US–Pakistan relations during the Afghanistan War (2001–2014) as a case study, it introduces and applies the Systemic Policy Approach (SPA) lens. SPA posits that an actor’s systemic position—defined by relative standing, material capabilities, geography, historical ties, and core security concerns—fundamentally shapes its strategic behavior and the opportunities it can exploit. The analysis shows how systemic position, strategic behavior, and strategic opportunity interact to explain the resilience of regional power strategies and the contentious outcomes of global–regional engagements. In doing so, SPA offers a nuanced analytical tool for understanding contemporary power dynamics beyond traditional hierarchical or autonomy-centric perspectives.