Structural Break in Brazilian Electricity Consumption Growth: A Time Series Analysis

This study investigates the dynamics of electricity consumption in Brazil over the past two decades, with a focus on the persistent slowdown in consumption growth observed since 2013. Using segmented regression and interrupted time series (ITS) modeling, the research identifies statistically significant structural breakpoints in national and regional electricity demand. The main novelty of this study lies in the integrated use of segmented regression, ITS, and seasonal SARIMA models to systematically characterize asymmetric and phase-dependent demand behavior rather than to produce short-term forecasts. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models reveal that monthly seasonality plays a dominant role in electricity consumption dynamics, with seasonal specifications consistently outperforming non-seasonal alternatives. The results show that Brazil’s electricity demand evolution is best explained by three distinct phases: (i) a stagnation of industrial demand associated with deindustrialization prior to 2013; (ii) an abrupt contraction in commercial and residential demand during the 2014–2016 economic crisis; and (iii) a permanently lower growth trajectory driven by energy efficiency policies under the Brazilian National Electric Energy Conservation Program (PROCEL) and the expansion of solar distributed generation. The findings demonstrate that policy and structural interventions exert gradual, cumulative effects on electricity consumption rather than immediate shifts, providing critical insights for long-term energy planning and policy design in emerging economies.