Potential Pathways and Solutions to Acute Food System Crisis in the UK

There is increasing concern in many advanced economies about the risks of disruption and crises in agri-food systems. Government departments and non-governmental organisations are working to identify and understand specific risks but struggle to take broad, holistic perspectives and therefore underestimate the potential for civil unrest. In the interests of helping move from understanding to action, we convened a group of experts through a Delphi process to map out potential pathways to acute UK food system crises and identify interventions that would build resilience and sustainability. To this end, we consulted 31 experts, carrying out 15 expert interviews, followed by three surveys and two workshops with a further 16 experts. The experts highlighted the many existing chronic issues creating a tinderbox for an acute risk to lead to a food crisis in the UK. These chronic issues include climate change, poor policy implementation, rising inequality, food supply chain consolidation and the risks from just-in-time supply of food. They voted to include three acute triggers—(a) cyber-attack, (b) a major extreme weather event and (c) a major new international conflict—and described how any combination of these could lead to (d) a UK food availability and/or price shock that could result in widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food, leading to violence. A total of 7 system-wide interventions were prioritised to help address these pathway elements together and build sustainability, and a further 21 were identified to address elements individually.

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Publication Details

Journal
Sustainability
Published
2026-01-29
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3390/su18031342
Primary Topic
Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Potential Pathways and Solutions to Acute Food System Crisis in the UK

Davide Natalini, J. Cordero, Pete Falloon, Simon Pearson et al.
Sustainability
Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
article

Potential Pathways and Solutions to Acute Food System Crisis in the UK

Davide Natalini, J. Cordero, Pete Falloon, Simon Pearson, Julie Pierce, Riaz Bhunnoo, Tom MacMillan, Sue Pritchard, Sarah Bridle, Caitlin Douglas, Vanessa Pilley, Bob Doherty, Monika Zurek, Kerry H. Whiteside, Saher Hasnain, Neil Ward, Lucy Stanbrough, Aled Jones, Molly Watson, Judith Batchelar, C Vogel, Angelina Sanderson Bellamy, Tim Lang, B. E. M. G. Coupé, Dominic Watters, Jude Irons, H. Charles J. Godfray, Ben Dare, Tim Benton, Ella Taylor, Elta Smith, Philip Tovey, Dan Crossley, Pete Smith, Alec Taylor, S. J. Beard, Eike Sindlinger, John Ingram, Daniel Morton
article en

Abstract

There is increasing concern in many advanced economies about the risks of disruption and crises in agri-food systems. Government departments and non-governmental organisations are working to identify and understand specific risks but struggle to take broad, holistic perspectives and therefore underestimate the potential for civil unrest. In the interests of helping move from understanding to action, we convened a group of experts through a Delphi process to map out potential pathways to acute UK food system crises and identify interventions that would build resilience and sustainability. To this end, we consulted 31 experts, carrying out 15 expert interviews, followed by three surveys and two workshops with a further 16 experts. The experts highlighted the many existing chronic issues creating a tinderbox for an acute risk to lead to a food crisis in the UK. These chronic issues include climate change, poor policy implementation, rising inequality, food supply chain consolidation and the risks from just-in-time supply of food. They voted to include three acute triggers—(a) cyber-attack, (b) a major extreme weather event and (c) a major new international conflict—and described how any combination of these could lead to (d) a UK food availability and/or price shock that could result in widespread fear of unsafe or inadequate food, leading to violence. A total of 7 system-wide interventions were prioritised to help address these pathway elements together and build sustainability, and a further 21 were identified to address elements individually.

SustainabilityVol. 18(3)
Roskilde University (DK), University of East Anglia (GB), Met Office (GB), University of Leeds (GB), Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (GB), Stockholm Environment Institute (GB), Chatham House (GB), University of the West of England (GB), City, University of London (GB), King's College London (GB), University of Aberdeen (GB), University of Cambridge (GB), Canterbury Archaeological Trust (GB), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (GB), Ocean Institute (US), Wildlife Trusts (GB), University of Bristol (GB), University of Oxford (GB), Mortimer Surgery (GB), Melton Mowbray Hospital (GB), Center for Assessment (US), London Institute for Mathematical Sciences (GB), Bristol Clinical Commissioning Group (GB), Theatrescience (GB), Argans (United Kingdom) (GB), Arup Group (United Kingdom) (GB), University of Southampton (GB), Anglia Ruskin University (GB), University of Lincoln (GB), University of York (GB), University of Reading (GB), Food Standards Agency (GB), Royal Agricultural University (GB)
Government of the United Kingdom
Zero hunger
Openalex Percentile: Top 74%
Agriculture, Land Use, Rural Development
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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